March Madness: NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch at 3/9/10

by Adam Markowitz

There are only a few days left for teams to improve their positioning in the NCAA Tournament. Here at Fanway, we're projecting what the field will look like for the second to last time before Selection Sunday this weekend...

Top 4 seeds

1s: Kentucky Wildcats (29-2), Kansas Jayhawks (29-2), Syracuse Orange (28-3), New Mexico Lobos (28-3)

2s: Duke Blue Devils (26-5), Kansas State Wildcats (23-6), Purdue Boilermakers (26-4), Ohio State Buckeyes (24-7)

3s: Villanova Wildcats (24-6), West Virginia Mountaineers (24-6), Temple Owls (26-5), Pittsburgh Panthers (24-7)

4s: Butler Bulldogs (27-4), Xavier Musketeers (23-7), Michigan State Spartans (24-7), BYU Cougars (27-4),

Bubble Watch

One of the bubble bids went down the drain last night when St. Mary's pushed Gonzaga into the at-large pool. There are only 35 bids available for teams that don't win their conference tournaments, and here's the list the slots that have already absolutely been filled by teams that have done enough to get in the NCAA Tournament either as automatic bids (in bold) or as at-large teams...

America East (1): TBD
Atlantic 10 (3): Temple Owls, Xavier Musketeers, Richmond Spiders
ACC (4): Duke Blue Devils, Maryland Terrapins, Clemson Tigers, Florida State Seminoles
Atlantic Sun (1): East Tennessee State Buccaneers
Big XII (7): Kansas Jayhawks, Kansas State Wildcats, Baylor Bears, Missouri Tigers, Texas A&M Aggies, Texas Longhorns, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Big East (8): Syracuse Orange, Villanova Wildcats, West Virginia Mountaineers, Pittsburgh Panthers, Marquette Golden Eagles, Georgetown Hoyas, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Louisville Cardinals
Big Sky (1): TBD
Big South (1): Winthrop Eagles
Big Ten (4): Ohio State Buckeyes, Purdue Boilermakers, Michigan State Spartans, Wisconsin Badgers
Big West (1): TBD
Colonial (1): Old Dominion Monarchs
Conference USA (1): UTEP Miners
Horizon (1): Butler Bulldogs
Ivy (1): Cornell Big Red
Metro Atlantic (1): Siena Saints
Mid-America (1): TBD
Mid-Eastern (1): TBD
Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa Panthers
Mountain West (3): New Mexico Lobos, BYU Cougars, UNLV Rebels
Northeast (1): TBD
Ohio Valley (1): Murray State Racers
Pac-10 (1): California
Patriot (1): TBD
SEC (3): Kentucky Wildcats, Vanderbilt Commodores, Tennessee Volunteers
Southern (1): Wofford Terriers
Southland (1): TBD
Summit (1): TBD
Sun Belt (1): TBD
SWAC (1): TBD
WAC (1): TBD
West Coast (2): St. Mary's Gaels, Gonzaga Bulldogs

That makes 57 slots of the 65 already taken (once we fill in the other conference champs). There are only eight remaining bids to the dance, and the action is going to only get tighter from here!

Almost there...

Here's a list of the teams that are probably the closest to locking down bids to the NCAA Tournament...

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-9): That win over Clemson on Saturday might've put the Demon Deacons in the field, but there's still just a little bit of work to be done. A loss against Miami on Thursday afternoon would be devastating. A win should be enough to make Wake a lock at 20 wins.

Virginia Tech Hokies (23-7): How can we argue with a team that has won 23 games and ten in the very powerful ACC? It feels like HC Seth Greenberg's team is always getting shafted though, and a win in Friday's quarterfinal against either Clemson or NC State will remove any potential doubt.

If we go under the assumption that these teams will do their part and pick up tickets to the dance, that would leave just seven spots left. Here's a short look at what everyone else would need to do to go dancing...

(Number of wins in parentheses)

Atlantic 10: In all likelihood, one of Rhode Island (21), St. Louis (20), Charlotte (19), and Dayton (19) will make the tournament. If any of these four reaches the A-10 final, they'll get in without any question. If not, one of them will need to knock off either Temple, Xavier, or Richmond, and the team that does just that will win a berth to March Madness.

ACC: The only team that is really up in the air in the ACC in Georgia Tech (19). This a team with decent computer numbers, but it doesn't real pass the eye test yet. A 19-12 record won't get the job done, so a win against North Carolina on Thursday night is a must. However, if the Jackets ultimately get swept by Florida State in three games, even at 20-12, it's going to be a nail biting scenario. Tech needs to get to 21 to feel good.

Big East: Eight teams are already in from the Big East, and it's going to be hard for the Selection Committee to justify taking any more. If we go under the assumption that South Florida (19) and Seton Hall (18) both win today in the first round of the Big East Tournament, both of those teams will need at least wins over one, if not two more opponents to go dancing. The loser of the Connecticut (17)/St. John's (16) game is finished, while the winner probably needs to reach the semifinals of the tournament. The same could be said for Cincinnati (16).

Big Ten: Unless Northwestern (19), or Minnesota (18) plans on making it to the finals of the Big Ten Tournament, don't count on seeing either of their names showing up on the bracket come Selection Sunday. Illinois (18) can get in the field by beating Wisconsin and Purdue in back-to-back days. If not, the Illini have played themselves into the NIT.

Conference USA: Three teams are at least still in the discussion right now for an at-large bid in C-USA, but a maximum of two will join UTEP in the dance. The formula for UAB (23), Memphis (23), and Marshall (23) is simple. Get to the C-USA Final. If not, don't complain when you don't see your name called on Sunday.

Mountain West: San Diego State (22) has won six of its L/7 games overall, but common logic says that 23-9 isn't going to be good enough for a fourth Mountain West team to get into the field of 65. The Aztecs are going to need to beat New Mexico to reach the MWC Final, and then they can get on their dancing shoes.

Pac-10: This is almost certainly a two-bid league now unless both Washington (21) and Arizona State (22) fall off the face of the earth in the Pac-10 Tournament. As long as both hold serve and meet each other in the semifinals, the winner will go dancing, while the loser will be a fringe bubble team at best.

SEC: Florida (20) and Mississippi State (21) both lost over the weekend to cripple their bubble chances. Ole Miss (21) remains in the discussion, but all three of these teams need to make it into the weekend of the SEC Tournament to be feeling good about their positions.

And the rest... Utah State (25) almost certainly needs to win the WAC to go dancing, but it could have a case if a ton of teams fall around them. William & Mary (22) probably saw its NCAA Tournament hopes go up in flames in its final game last night in a loss to ODU in the Colonial finale. There aren't any other mid-majors that are bubble teams at this point.

... Let the Madness continue...

Posted by Adam Markowitz on March 09, 2010

This was posted in: NCAA

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