March Madness: NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch at 2/26/10
Top 4 seeds 1s: Kentucky Wildcats (27-1), Kansas Jayhawks (27-1), Purdue Boilermakers (24-3), Syracuse Orange (26-2) Bubble Watch Atlantic 10: What a mess the A-10 still is! March Madness has come early in a conference where a lot is still up in the air. Xavier, Temple, and Richmond continue to solidify their spots in the field, while Rhode Island and Charlotte both picked up monster wins recently to improve their positions. The Rams are probably still in right now at 20-6, but they can't afford another loss in the regular season. Next week's game between the Rams and 49ers may determine which one of these teams is going to go dancing. Dayton is in deep trouble after suffering losses to Duquesne and Temple last week. St. Louis needed to beat Xavier to get in for certain, but the Billikens will still have chances to get back into the field. ACC: As long as nothing drastic changes, Duke, Maryland, Florida State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech are all in pretty good shape. Odds have it, these will be the seven that represent the ACC in the dance, barring someone else coming from out of nowhere to win the ACC Tournament in two weeks. Big XII: After next week, seven teams in the Big XII will have reached the 20+ win plateau. All seven should get in the field, which means that Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Baylor, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State can all get their dancing shoes ready. The Pokes are probably in the worst shape of those teams, so they may need to get to 22-23 to feel safe, but they should get the job done. Big East: And then there were 11 teams with a legitimate shot of dancing... This is clearly the most intriguing conference in the country right now, because all 11 know that they could legitimately make a good enough case to make the field. Here's what we know for sure. Regardless of what else happens, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Georgetown are all absolutely in the tournament. Nova and Syracuse may be battling for a #1 seed this weekend at the Carrier Dome. Marquette and Louisville have both wrapped up at least .500 records in regular season Big East play, but both will need at least two more victories to nab a ticket to the dance. Connecticut's win over West Virginia may have put the Huskies back in the field, while the case for Notre Dame got a lot better with a win over Pittsburgh without All-American F Luke Harangody on the court. Seton Hall and Cincinnati still have chances, but both need to string together at least two more regular season wins and a win in the Big East Tournament to have a chance. South Florida and St. John's both still have outside chances, but both are probably finished. Big Ten: Illinois' recent losses to Ohio State and Purdue aren't going to hurt that much. The Illini are still in the field, and all they'll need to do is to get to 20 wins to lock up that spot. Unless Minnesota runs the table in the regular season and does some damage in the Big Ten tourney, the only teams getting tickets to the dance in the Big Ten are Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Colonial Athletic Association: BracketBuster weekend killed the CAA. Old Dominion lost to Northern Iowa, while Northeastern was beaten on its home court by Louisiana Tech. ODU still has to be in the discussion for an at-large bid, but it had better beat VCU at home this weekend. It's hard to see how the Monarchs are getting into the field if they end up suffering ten losses. Conference USA: The only two teams on the radar right now in C-USA are UAB and UTEP. Both are probably in if the tourney started today, but the Miners have a significantly stronger case with a 12-1 conference record. It would behoove both of these teams to try their best to get the league's automatic ticket, but if this is the C-USA Championship, both teams will almost certainly get to go dancing. Horizon League: Nothing's changed here. Butler is still the only member of the Horizon League dancing. Ivy League: If Cornell loses to Princeton at home tonight, the Big Red don't deserve a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Still, if they finish 26-5, it's going to be hard to keep Cornell out if the Tigers do win the Ivy League. The Big Red would have an intriguing case, but would likely be left home, especially if the loss comes by any significant margin. A win tonight would basically wrap the league title and the automatic bid up, and the idea of the Ivy League carrying two teams to the tournament would be dismissed. Metro Atlantic: Siena's loss on BracketBusters to Butler probably means that the Saints need the MAAC championship to go dancing. Missouri Valley Conference: Wichita State's loss at Utah State during BracketBusters probably ended the Shockers' hopes of an at-large bid. If UNI wins the conference tourney, the Panthers will be the league's only entrant to the dance. If not, the Valley will get two bids. Mountain West: The Aztecs couldn't get the big win that the needed at BYU this past week, and now they're going to be a very, very interesting case for the dance. SDSU has the resume to get in the field, but the question is whether or not the Selection Committee wants to see four MWC teams go dancing or not. The Aztecs had better not suffer an early loss in the conference tournament, or they will be NIT-bound. BYU, New Mexico, and UNLV are all already in the field for sure, but the Rebs probably need a couple more wins just to feel 100% safe. Pac-10: If Arizona State can finish the regular season at 23-8, the Sun Devils will have made a case to make the dance even without the Pac-10 title. Cal's resume looks to be good enough as well, but the Bears only have two regular season contests left to impress. Washington will probably rue the day that it lost to the Trojans on its home court, but could still get back into the at-large discussions with three road wins to end the regular season. Right now though, the Pac-10 is still just a one-bid league, and odds have it, it will stay that way. SEC: The Gators have to feel a heck of a lot better about themselves after beating Ole Miss and Tennessee in their L/2 games. They'll probably need two more wins somewhere to get the job done, but the blue and orange are probably joining three other members of the SEC East in the dance: Kentucky, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt. The West may not send anyone, as Ole Miss and Mississippi State continue to shoot themselves in the foot. If the Bulldogs can win on Saturday in Columbia, their case will become a lot stronger, but some bad out of conference losses may be too much to overlook. Mississippi's loss to Florida may have been lethal, especially considering the Rebs were already swept by MSU this year. WAC: Assuming that Utah State can win its final two regular season games to get to 25-6, the Aggies will have a good gripe to get in the field with or without the WAC title under their belts. Still, that loss had better come in the final, or this will probably be a one-bid league. La-Tech's loss to Boise State at home on Thursday night was a killer. West Coast Conference: Every week we talk about what a close call St. Mary's will be when it comes time to fill out the brackets. The Selection Committee will have a tough time justifying the Gaels getting into the field without a win over Gonzaga at some point, but can they really turn down a team that goes 26-6? That would be the record that St. Mary's presents to the committee if it loses in the WCC final. Right now, the Gaels are probably just barely on the inside, perhaps as the last team in the field. They'll be watching closely and hoping that there aren't any extra at-large spots that close up in the weeks to come.
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Everyone has their own opinions for who should be in and who should be out of the NCAA Tournament. Here at Fanway, we have a take of our own, and we'll give you the low down on what teams should be very wary about their position in the Field of 65 heading into another fantastic weekend of college basketball action...

